Free Betting Advice – Bookmakers and Secrets – Basics

Bookmaker Management

The vast majority of you likely think of the bookmakers as the old enemy, cash thief, the Devil himself even!!

If you do, it follows that your likely one of the many millions of folk giving them cash, and getting little back. This is negative thinking, and any negative thinking in gambling leads to your demise.

So what can you do about it, and what difference does it make what you think of your bookmaker?

Well all my bookmakers are my friend; in reality somebody who gives me cash is a friend. Wouldn’t that be the same for you? As soon as you believe that the bookie is the kind man who supplies you with cash for a Saturday night out, or that latest kitchen appliance, then you’re on the road to improving your returns already.

Most gamblers think you can win thousands a day, and purchase a boat one week, and a new vehicle the next when you’re a pro, but you are dreaming, it takes hours of work to create a decent profit every month.

If you additionally think your friendly bookmaker will happily hand over thousands a day too you, guess what? You’ve got to be kidding. If you run a business, and you are giving the same customer cash every day for nothing, would you still do business with him? Sure you wouldn’t.

If you keep attempting to bankrupt a bookmaker, he will show you the respect you deserve for your approach, and shut your account. This is not bad nasty bookmaker, but common sense, he is attempting to run a business, and make a profit.

Now if you know you are likely to make money, and the bookmaker knows you are going to make money, you have too keep to an acceptable each week, and then he’ll be able to lay off your bets, and he will furthermore accept that the bets you put on are in addition supplying him with good info. This way you can have a decent association, although they could still limit your maximum bet. However, this method will not work with the Big 3 bookies, as they do not wish for any winners.

If working at home, you will need to plan your betting like a military mission for each bet, and spread it all around various bookies.

If you want to bet thousands, then the only answer is to do battle on the track, or on a betting exchange, and as soon as your making this much, you still have to use the same theory as above.

On Course Secrets

Just a quick tip, but one which ought to help you find extra winners while on the racecourse.

Before racing begins, hang around the bookies looking for any punters placing a nice wad of cash on a horse. If he/she is wearing a suit, it’s probably best ignoring them, as these are corporate men trying to impress their clients or boss, and likely don’t have a clue which end the head is on.

If they look like ordinary Joe Punter, but are betting big, they may be a pro. You are probably best keeping an eye on them for the first few races to make sure they do know what they are doing, and keep an eye on more than one, as professional gamblers are pretty rare.

Watch which racehorses they gamble on, and watch the race. If that horse wins, or runs well, watch to see which horse they bet on next. Again, watch the race, and the next one. After that, if you consider this person to have good expertise, you can follow what he does for the remainder of the day.

We don’t mind folk doing that, as we can’t hide from view what we do, although a few will get piddled off with being stalked! Don’t follow in our shadow though, as you will get a number of choice words, as you wouldn’t like being tailed by a strange looking person would you?

You can make contact with pros on the track, although they might not give you the days selections, the majority will offer you advice, and a number of pointers for the future.

Secrets of Sports Betting – The Bookmakers Secrets!

During the 1980’s, I was part of a group, that used computers to win millions in sports wagers from Las Vegas Casinos. This was before personal computers were in everyday use. The invention we not call the internet was years away from having access to handicapping stats and data. We were successful for two reasons. First we were ahead of the odds makers in collecting important information. They were still doing things the old way, and we took advantage of that loophole.

Those days are gone forever. The second key to success, is to understand how the numbers really work.

ODDS DO NOT PREDICT THE WINNER

Think of it this way. “Odds do not predict who will win. They are actually predicting who the public THINKS will win.” Most sports punters, both professional and novice, do not understand the secrets of the bookmakers.

Two-way sports wagers, (meaning two teams with a 50-50 chance of winning with no ties) are posted at odds of 11-10. This means you wager £11 to win £10. Half the punters select team A, and collect their £10 when they win. The other punters choose team B, and lose the contest paying their bookie £11. You would think this gives the house or bookmaker a 4.55% advantage. You would be wrong with this assumption, but do not feel bad, 99.5% of the bettors think like you do.

THE BIG MISCONCEPTION

General thinking goes something like this. The bookmakers, insure themselves a profit only by balancing their books. In other words, they hope to get half the bets on each of the teams, thus they win every time. In reality, they hardly ever balance their books, or even come close. Your may find small local bookmakers, with small bankrolls, try to operate in this manner, but with so many internet shops available, even they can even up lopsided books. Many small bookmakers do not even know the secret. They are like the rest of the cattle and travel along with the herd. The erroneous belief that large sports bookmaking operations need to balance their bets is the big secret in the industry. What they do need to accomplish, is secure plenty of volume on both sides, without actually balancing the books.

THE BOOKMAKER’S SECRET REVEALED

Suppose the bettors in our example game, risked $165,000 to win $150,000 on the favourite. But the public only bet $82,500 on the underdog trying to win $75,000. This looks like a mismatch, with the bookmaker heading for big trouble if the favourite wins. If the dog prevails, the sports book makes a profit of $90,000. He wins $165,000 from the favourite bettors, and pays out $75,000 to the Dog winners. If the Favorite wins, the bookmaker loses $67,500. He will win $82,500 from the underdog backers, but lose $150,000 to the fans who bet the favourite. This results in a loss of $67,500.

Now you may be saying too yourself that math does not make the house a winner. So let us review, when the Underdog wins, the bookmaker wins $82,500 but if the favorite wins, he loses $67,500. Favourites and underdogs usually split the winning equally and each side 50% winning of the time. Half of the time he will lose $67,500, the other half he will win $82,500, so his profit is $15,000 no matter who wins. So in our example, what is the bookmaker really risking? The bookmaker is really risking $67,500 to win $82,500. In simple terms, he is essentially laying $75 to win $100. That means he does not have to even win 50% of the time to break even. The house only needs a 42.9% strike rate, after that, it is all profit.

TAKE DOWN A 33% PROFIT NO MATTER WHO WINS

Give me odds of losing $75 and winning $100 on a 50-50 coin flip wager. I will beat you every time with this huge house advantage. To most fans, the general thinking is the bookmaker needs to balance his books with equal wagers. From my example, you can see this is not true. When you have bettors risking twice as much on the favourite side, you are getting a 33% return on every dollar.

Winning Betting Tips – 3 Secrets the Bookmakers Don’t Want You to Use For Betting and Winning Money

Winning betting systems, methods and tips can be found everywhere on the internet, but unsurprisingly, very few of these systems are ever likely to deliver on their promises of untold winnings from betting online. There are however, some methods and approaches that the bookmakers would rather you didn’t use. This article looks at some of these and how you should be taking advantage to increase your winnings. 

Winning Tip 1

Lets start with an old favourite, the “each way steal”. This is a bet that the bookies hate taking, but are obliged to do so. Basically, due to the way in which the place part of an “each-way” bet is calculated, in certain races the odds that a bookmaker has to pay out on a horse placing are much higher than the true statistical probability. To take advantage of this, it is possible to place the each-way bet and lay part of the win bet off on the betting exchanges, giving you a statistical return greater than the true odds. In essence you will have a long-term profitable edge. 

Winning Tip 2

The next tip to remember is that the bookies are looking to make as much money as possible, and advertise their bets accordingly. You should always try to avoid the bets that are heavily promoted by the bookmakers. These are usually multiple bets of some description, advertising a huge payout for winning bets, but with very little statistical chance of success. You are much better off, and will be much more profitable, sticking to straightforward single bets, especially in markets such as tennis or football. 

Winning Tip 3

One exception to this “bookie advertising” rule however, is with regard to the bonuses bookmakers advertise in order to encourage people to join up and start placing bets. They are obviously looking to offset the cost of the joining bonus with the winnings they expect to make from your losing bets over the long-term. But if you are disciplined, it is possible to place the required bet with your bonus money, and place the opposite back or lay on the exchanges to “cash-in” the free bet. Many people make a decent monthly income moving from bookmaker to bookmaker doing this, before returning to take advantage of further “re-load” or one-off bonuses. 

This, however, is just the tip of the iceberg. If you are prepared to make the effort, remain disciplined, and follow a strategic approach to your betting, it is perfectly possible to make consistent long-term profits from betting using many different approaches. The bookies make their profits using the application of statistics and probability, now it’s your turn to use these weapons against them.