As with all professional gamblers, I use a combination of strategies across differing sports in the continual pursuit of long term betting success. A well known betting method is Neil Smiths Value Horse Method, but does it work? Read on to find my personal view of this method.
To begin with, the foundations of the method lie in a classic betting technique often referred to as the “each way steal” or practiced by “each way thieves”. It revolves around the basic maths of each way betting, and an anomaly that has been opened up by the advent of the betting exchanges which allows you to structure a bet that produces a return greater than the true odds of the event happening. In essence providing a value bet – Hence the name. Depending on how you view the race the method and stakes can be adjusted to structure the bet to return an equal win regardless of who wins, or bias the return towards a place or win for the horse.
OK, so in theory, the maths is faultless, but how does it work in practice. One thing to be aware of is the effect non-runners can have on the returns if they reduce the amount of places the bookie will pay out on from 4 to 3 or from 3 to 2. For this reason, when I use it, I will try to place my bets as close to the start time as possible if the withdrawal of 1 runner could jeopardise my returns. Where the withdrawal of 1 or more runners will not reduce the place terms this is less of an issue.
There are however drawbacks that you will have to work to avoid, the main one being due to the fact it does work! The “each way anomaly” is something that the bookies are well aware of, and if you abuse this method you will soon find that the bookmakers will start to restrict the amount you can bet with them. A nice problem to have, but not much use if you are trying to make money. This can however be avoided by spreading the bet across differing bookmakers, and rotating its use along with other methods so that you are “giving back” to the bookie – or so he will think.
Additionally the logic behind the method can be extended to other sporting events. I have personally even used the method to secure guaranteed winnings on everything from the eurovision song contest to various tennis tournaments. The method is also the ideal tool to be used to enhance the return you can achieve from matched betting, where you use the introductory bonuses given by bookmakers to guarantee profits. The fact that many bookmakers offer a “best odds guarantee” can also boost the returns dramatically if the horses price should drift after you have placed your bets.
The Value Horse Method is also available as an automated software application that does all the hard work for you, finds the applicable bets, and calculates the amounts you should be staking in order to guarantee the returns you require.
In conclusion, the answer therefore has to be yes, the Value Horse Method is a worthy weapon for any Gambler to have in their arsenal in the continual war against the bookmakers.